Trump Thought Canada Would Cave. It Didn’t.

The Political Miscalculation

Donald Trump may have made one very big mistake when it came to Canada.

He may have assumed that eventually, we would cave.

That if the tariffs became high enough, if the threats became serious enough, and if enough pressure was placed on Canadian businesses, workers and governments, Canada would eventually decide that almost any deal was better than no deal.

Except that isn’t what happened.

Canada walked away.

Prime Minister Mark Carney recalled Canada’s negotiating team from Washington after saying that last-minute changes demanded by the United States were unfair, uneconomic and raised serious questions about whether Canada could rely on the agreement even if we signed it.

Think about how remarkable that is.

Only a few days earlier, Donald Trump himself was saying there was a deal.

The negotiations had apparently made enough progress that Trump postponed the threatened 50 percent tariffs for three days while the final details were worked out.

On Truth Social, Trump actually wrote that the two countries had reached, in capital letters, “a DEAL.”

Then everything changed.

New conditions appeared.

According to reporting by the Washington Post, there were disagreements within the Trump administration itself.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had been negotiating with Canada and was apparently willing to reduce some American tariffs as part of the agreement.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro weren’t happy with some of those concessions.

According to the Washington Post, Lutnick and Navarro confronted Greer at the White House over the concessions he was prepared to make.

Then, late in the negotiations, the United States wanted Canadian-built heavy trucks excluded from some of the tariff reductions.

That included vehicles such as Ford F-350s and F-450s made in Ontario.

There were also American demands involving Canada’s ability to negotiate future trade agreements with other countries.

Now, the United States disputes Canada’s description of some of those demands.

An American trade official says there was no written language specifically preventing Canada from signing trade agreements with other countries.

So there are two versions of exactly what happened inside that negotiating room.

What we do know is that something changed.

Canada believed it was negotiating one agreement.

By the end of the week, the terms were no longer acceptable.

And Carney walked.

There’s one sentence from Mark Carney that I think describes this entire relationship better than almost anything else I’ve heard.

He said:

“We recognize that sometimes, its signature is written in pencil.”

That’s quite a statement.

It’s diplomatic language, certainly. But everybody understands what he means.

What good is an agreement if you aren’t convinced the agreement will still be there tomorrow?

What good is giving up something important to get a tariff removed if another tariff can simply appear next month?

What good is negotiating a deal if, just when you think you’ve finished negotiating, somebody else walks into the room and changes the deal?

That’s where I think the Trump administration may have miscalculated Canada.

Donald Trump’s negotiating style has always relied heavily on pressure.

Make a threat.

Set a deadline.

Raise the stakes.

Make the other side uncomfortable.

Then wait for them to give you something.

And to be fair, that strategy has worked with other countries.

The United States is the largest economy in the world. Access to that market matters enormously.

It matters especially to Canada.

Roughly 70 percent of Canadian exports still go to the United States.

Our two economies have been tied together for generations.

Cars, energy, agriculture, lumber, minerals and thousands of other products cross that border every single day.

So from Washington’s perspective, the calculation probably looked pretty simple.

Canada needs us more than we need Canada.

Apply enough pressure and eventually Canada will sign.

Except economics isn’t the only thing involved here anymore.

National pride is involved.

Sovereignty is involved.

Trust is involved.

And Canadians have changed.

For most of my lifetime, Canadians have taken our relationship with the United States almost for granted.

We travelled there.

We shopped there.

We traded with them.

We watched their television.

We bought their products.

We drove across the border without thinking very much about it.

They were our neighbours, our friends and our closest economic partners.

Most Canadians still don’t have anything against ordinary Americans.

I certainly don’t.

This isn’t about the American people.

It’s about the relationship between our two governments and the way Canada is being treated by the Trump administration.

And Canadians seem to understand that distinction.

We’ve been watching something happen in this country over the past year and a half that I haven’t seen very often.

Canadians are pushing back.

We’re checking labels in grocery stores.

We’re buying Canadian products when we can.

Many Canadians have stopped travelling to the United States.

Provinces removed American alcohol from store shelves.

Businesses have started advertising Canadian ownership and Canadian-made products.

And increasingly, Canadians are asking a question that we probably should have asked decades ago:

Why are we so dependent on one country?

This isn’t just anecdotal.

Just days before these negotiations collapsed, Léger asked Canadians how the government should handle the United States.

Fifty-six percent said Canada should take a hard line and make no more concessions.

Here’s the number that really caught my attention.

Even among Conservative voters, 51 percent wanted a hard line.

Think about that.

We can barely agree on what to have for dinner in this country.

We argue about pipelines.

We argue about climate change.

We argue about immigration.

We argue about Alberta.

We argue about Quebec.

We argue about the Liberals and Conservatives and NDP.

We argue about almost everything.

Yet Donald Trump has somehow managed to find an issue that brings a surprising number of Canadians together.

In Canada.

When we feel that our country is being pushed around, our political differences suddenly become a little less important.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford strongly supported Carney walking away.

Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called for national unity in responding to the American tariffs.

Provincial governments that disagree with Ottawa on almost everything are still saying that Canada cannot simply surrender its ability to make its own decisions.

That doesn’t mean everybody agrees with Mark Carney.

Of course they don’t.

It doesn’t mean Canadians agree on exactly how we should retaliate.

They don’t.

In fact, polling before the breakdown showed Canadians divided over whether we should impose more counter-tariffs, continue negotiating, or make some concessions.

What Canadians appear much more united about is the basic principle.

We want a deal.

We need a deal.

We would benefit from a deal.

But not at any price.

Carney has repeatedly said Canada’s objective was never simply to get an agreement before some artificial deadline. His words were that Canada wanted the best deal for Canadians, “never a deal at any price or on any deadline.”

That’s an important distinction.

Walking away from a negotiation does not mean you’re against a deal.

Sometimes walking away is part of negotiating a deal.

You’re saying:

This far.

No further.

If you want us back at the table, bring us something we can actually sign.

There’s another part of this that Donald Trump may have underestimated.

Canadians have already been living with this uncertainty for a year and a half.

The threats aren’t new anymore.

The tariff announcements aren’t shocking anymore.

The deadlines aren’t frightening us the way they once did.

We’ve heard 25 percent.

We’ve heard 35 percent.

We’ve heard 50 percent.

We’ve heard threats against our automobiles, steel, aluminum, lumber and other industries.

We’ve heard Canada described as economically dependent on the United States.

We’ve heard comments about Canada becoming the 51st state.

At some point, fear stops working as a negotiating tool.

People become tired of being threatened.

And eventually they say:

Fine.

Do it.

We’ll deal with it.

That doesn’t mean it won’t hurt.

It will.

There are Canadian workers whose jobs are now more vulnerable.

There are businesses that will lose orders.

There are families who may pay higher prices.

There are industries that could face very serious consequences.

Carney himself isn’t pretending otherwise.

The United States has now imposed 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, and Canada has announced that it will respond dollar for dollar with tariffs on American products beginning September 8.

Trump has now gone even further, threatening 50 percent tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and automotive parts beginning January 1st.

So nobody should celebrate this as though Canada just won something.

We haven’t.

This could become very expensive.

For us.

And for Americans.

Because here’s the part of tariffs that tends to get lost in the political shouting.

A tariff isn’t a bill that Donald Trump mails to Mark Carney.

American companies importing Canadian products pay those tariffs.

Those costs can then move through the supply chain until eventually somebody pays them.

Most often, that somebody is the consumer.

The same thing happens when Canada puts tariffs on American products.

Canadians can end up paying more.

So yes, there is a price for standing our ground.

There is a price for walking away.

There is a price for Canada deciding that sovereignty and independence are worth protecting.

The real question is how high that price could become.

That’s where I’m going next.

In my next North of Opinion video, we’re going to put the politics aside for a few minutes and look at what this failed deal could actually cost.

What happens to Canadian grocery bills?

What happens to cars?

What happens to jobs?

What happens to American consumers who suddenly discover that a trade war with Canada isn’t free for them either?

Because Canada walking away from a bad deal may have been the right decision.

That doesn’t make it a painless decision.

For today, though, I think something important happened.

Donald Trump tested Canada.

Maybe he thought we’d cave.

Maybe he thought the pressure would become too great.

Maybe he thought that because America is bigger, Canada would eventually have no choice.

Instead, Canada pushed its chair away from the table and walked out of the room.

Not because we don’t want a relationship with the United States.

We do.

Mark Carney said something else after the talks collapsed that deserves to be remembered.

“The bonds between Canadians and Americans remain strong.

A mutually beneficial trade agreement is possible.

One that respects our sovereignty.”

That’s the deal Canada should sign.

A fair deal.

A reliable deal.

A deal between two sovereign countries.

Until that deal is actually on the table, maybe Washington needs to understand something about Canadians.

We’re friendly.

We’re polite.

We’re reasonable.

We compromise.

But don’t mistake any of those things for weakness.

Canada didn’t cave. And I don’t think Canadians want us to.